Criminal Governance in Unexpected Contexts
Lucía Tiscornia
University College Dublin
lucia.tiscornia@ucd.ie
Ines Fynn
Universidad Católica del Uruguay ines.fynn@ucu.edu.uy
Verónica Pérez Bentancur
Universidad de la República veronica.perez@cienciassociales.edu.uy
Gustavo Diaz
McMaster University
diazg2@mcmaster.ca
Slides and paper: talks.gustavodiaz.org
Question
How does criminal governance work when state presence/capacity is high?
Criminal governance
Criminal governance
Ability
Criminal governance
Ability to control a community’s behavior
Criminal governance
Ability to control a community’s behavior with the goal of profiting from illicit markets
Criminal governance
Ability to control a community’s behavior with the goal of profiting from illicit markets; manifest in political, economic, and social spheres.
Mechanisms of control:
- Violent: Threats, direct violence, extortion
- Nonviolent: Jobs, payment of bills, basic goods provision
Our theory
Research Design
Case selection: Montevideo, Uruguay
- Low violence and crime
- Extensive social protection
- Crucial least likely case
Research Design
Fieldwork (2021-2022)
- 66 in depth interviews
- Review of press and documents (2012-2022)
- Criminal governance is a sensitive topic
- Affected populations are hidden
Research Design
Online survey (2022)
- Estimate prevalence of criminal governance actions
- N = 2,688
- Direct questions
- Network scale-up questions (NSUM)
Survey: Direct question
During the last six months, in your neighborhood, have you seen criminal organizations…
Violent
- Threaten neighbors
- Evict neighbors
Nonviolent
- Make donations to neighbors
- Offer jobs to neighbors
Survey: NSUM questions
How many X do you know,
Survey: NSUM questions
How many X do you know, who also know you,
Survey: NSUM questions
How many X do you know, who also know you, with whom you have interacted in the last year
Survey: NSUM questions
How many X do you know, who also know you, with whom you have interacted in the last year in person, by phone, or any other channel?
From Las Piedras
Male 25-29
Police officers
University students
Had a kid last year
Passed away last year
Married last year
Female 45-49
Public employees
Welfare card holders
Registered with party
With kids in public school
Did not vote in last election
Currently in jail
Recently unemployed
[CRIMINAL GOVERNANCE ACTION]
Survey: Results
Survey: Results
What else?
- Survey: Similar prevalence in low/high income neighborhoods
- Survey: Constrained space for criminal governance
- Interviews: Limited attempts at social/political control
Conclusion
Findings
- Criminal governance is a relevant phenomenon in Montevideo
- But no attempt at social/political control
Conclusion
Implications
- Current explanations may be biased towards cases with more aggressive security policy
- Rethink theoretical scope conditions
Criminal Governance in Unexpected Contexts Lucía Tiscornia University College Dublin lucia.tiscornia@ucd.ie Ines Fynn Universidad Católica del Uruguay ines.fynn@ucu.edu.uy Verónica Pérez Bentancur Universidad de la República veronica.perez@cienciassociales.edu.uy Gustavo Diaz McMaster University diazg2@mcmaster.ca Slides and paper: talks.gustavodiaz.org