Criminal Governance in Unexpected Contexts

Lucía Tiscornia
University College Dublin

Ines Fynn
Universidad Católica del Uruguay

Verónica Pérez Bentancur
Universidad de la República

Gustavo Diaz
McMaster University

 

Slides and paper: talks.gustavodiaz.org

Question

How does criminal governance work when state presence/capacity is high?

Criminal governance

Criminal governance

Ability

Criminal governance

Ability to control a community’s behavior

Criminal governance

Ability to control a community’s behavior with the goal of profiting from illicit markets

Criminal governance

Ability to control a community’s behavior with the goal of profiting from illicit markets; manifest in political, economic, and social spheres.

Mechanisms of control:

  1. Violent: Threats, direct violence, extortion
  2. Nonviolent: Jobs, payment of bills, basic goods provision

Our theory

Research Design

Case selection: Montevideo, Uruguay

  • Low violence and crime
  • Extensive social protection
  • Crucial least likely case

Research Design

Fieldwork (2021-2022)

  • 66 in depth interviews
  • Review of press and documents (2012-2022)
  • Criminal governance is a sensitive topic
  • Affected populations are hidden

Research Design

Online survey (2022)

  • Estimate prevalence of criminal governance actions
  • N = 2,688
  • Direct questions
  • Network scale-up questions (NSUM)

Survey: Direct question

During the last six months, in your neighborhood, have you seen criminal organizations…

 

Violent

  • Threaten neighbors
  • Evict neighbors

Nonviolent

  • Make donations to neighbors
  • Offer jobs to neighbors

Survey: NSUM questions

How many X do you know,

Survey: NSUM questions

How many X do you know, who also know you,

Survey: NSUM questions

How many X do you know, who also know you, with whom you have interacted in the last year

Survey: NSUM questions

How many X do you know, who also know you, with whom you have interacted in the last year in person, by phone, or any other channel?

From Las Piedras
Male 25-29
Police officers
University students
Had a kid last year
Passed away last year
Married last year
Female 45-49

Public employees
Welfare card holders
Registered with party
With kids in public school
Did not vote in last election
Currently in jail
Recently unemployed
[CRIMINAL GOVERNANCE ACTION]

Survey: Results

Survey: Results

What else?

  • Survey: Similar prevalence in low/high income neighborhoods
  • Survey: Constrained space for criminal governance
  • Interviews: Limited attempts at social/political control

Conclusion

Findings

  • Criminal governance is a relevant phenomenon in Montevideo
  • But no attempt at social/political control

Conclusion

Implications

  • Current explanations may be biased towards cases with more aggressive security policy
  • Rethink theoretical scope conditions